Long-term Insights Briefings: A novel policy instrument to deal with foresight
TUESDAY, 1 SEPTEMBER 2021
Thank you for joining the Long-term Insights Briefings webinar on 1 September. We have collected a diverse range of responses from the post-webinar survey, and collated them into ‘Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey’ (below). These responses helped inform the 21 September presentation where Roger, David and Wendy presented their thoughts to the Select Committee Chairpersons and Deputies in Parliament.
Thank you for joining the Long-term Insights Briefings webinar on 1 September. We have collected a diverse range of responses from the post-webinar survey, and collated them into ‘Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey’ (below). These responses helped inform the 21 September presentation where Roger, David and Wendy presented their thoughts to the Select Committee Chairpersons and Deputies in Parliament.
Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey
September 2021
Download (PDF, 6 MB)
Webinar Video
Event details
‘Long-term Insights Briefings: A novel policy instrument to deal with foresight’ was held on 1 September 2021.
The speakers included Roger Dennis, David Skilling and Wendy McGuinness. The discussion was moderated by Professor Girol Karacaoglu, Head of the School of Government and former Chief Economist for the New Zealand Treasury.
A PDF of the presentation slides can be found here.
Background
In mid-June, three foresight experts wrote an op-ed for Newsroom on the new Long-term Insights Briefings. Roger Dennis, Wendy McGuinness and David Skilling noted that the briefings were an extraordinary opportunity for New Zealand and for democracy. The article attracted over 12,000 views on LinkedIn and comments from officials in Australia and the UK.
At the Long-term Insights Briefings webinar, the panelists covered the need for future thinking in government, highlighted how corporations and countries apply foresight, and suggested a range of ways chief executives might prepare briefings. They concluded by discussing what a successful briefing might deliver. The discussion was moderated by Professor Girol Karacaoglu, Head of the School of Government and former Chief Economist for the New Zealand Treasury.
The Newsroom article can be viewed here.
Learn more about this new policy instrument by seeing the DPMC page here.
Speakers
Roger Dennis has worked for more than two decades with organisations around the world to help leaders make sense of a fast-changing world. He is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington and an Edmund Hillary Fellow.
Wendy McGuinness is the founder and chief executive of the McGuinness Institute Te Hononga Waka. The Institute is a non-partisan think tank working towards a sustainable future for Aotearoa New Zealand using the tools of hindsight, insight and foresight.
Dr David Skilling is the founding director of Landfall Strategy Group, an economic and policy advisory firm based in the Netherlands and Singapore. David advises governments, companies and financial institutions in Asia, the Middle East and Europe on the impact of global macro, globalisation and geopolitics, from a small advanced economy perspective.
2021 Department Consultation on Long-term Insights Briefings
Under the legislation, a department must consult on the topic/s and the draft content of each Briefing. Below is a table of consultations in progress. Note: This may not be a comprehensive list.
The Public Service Commission has a more up to date list of public consultations for the Long-term Insights Briefings, found here.
| Number | Department(s) | Subject | Single or joint briefing? | Time horizon | STAGE 1: Consultation on subject matter | Duration | STAGE 2: Consultation on draft | Duration | STAGE 3: Final | Date published | Briefing due in House |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Department of Conservation (DOC) and Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) | The future of protecting biodiversity by means of new and innovative opportunities provided by modern information systems and technology | Joint | Not specified | How can innovation in the way we use information and emerging technology help biodiversity thrive? | 18 October–14 November 2021 (27 days) | How can we help biodiversity thrive through the innovative use of information and emerging technologies? | November 2022–16 January 2023 | Download | March 2023 | Late 2023 |
| 2. | Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) | Creating better opportunities for public participation at both a community and national scale through help from rapidly evolving digital tools and in doing so, ensuring protection from harm. | Single | Suggests at least 10 years (2022– 2032+) | DIA Long-term Insights Briefing initial consultation document | 22 October–18 November 2021 (27 days) | Draft Long-term Insights Briefing: Consultation document | May 2022–1 June 2022 | Download | November 2022 | Not found |
| 3. | DPMC, GCSB, MBIE, MoD, MFAT, NZCS and NZSIS | Building open, inclusive and accessible Government engagement with the public in regard to evolving national security issues, in particular threat-based risks such as disinformation, hacking and cyber attacks, and foreign interference and espionage. | Joint | Suggests at least 10 years (2022– 2032+) | Engaging an increasingly diverse Aotearoa New Zealand on national security risks, challenges and opportunities | 21 October–18 November 2021 (28 days) | Engaging an increasingly diverse Aotearoa New Zealand on national security risks, challenges and opportunities | 1 November–22 November 2022 (21 days) | Download | March 2023 | Late 2022 |
| 4. | Education Review Office (ERO) | Preparing the education system for the increasing ethnic diversity, and associated language, cultural, and religious diversity of the population with a particular focus on schools and their practices | Single | Not specified | Responding to Diverse Cultures: Schools’ Practice Consultation to develop a Long-Term Insights Briefing | 3–23 March 2022 (20 days) | Education For All Our Children: Embracing Diverse Cultures | 22 November–20 December 2022 (28 days) | Download | March 2023 | March 2023 |
| 5. | Inland Revenue Department (IRD) | The effects of taxes on inbound investment and their impacts on incentives to invest in New Zealand, the cost of capital, and how changing the way businesses are taxed would affect productivity. | Single | Not specified | Tax, investment and productivity: Consultation on the scope of Inland Revenue’s long-term insights briefing | 13 August 2021–6 September 2021 (24 days) | Tax, foreign investment and productivity: Draft long-term insights briefing | 24 February–14 April 2022 (49 days) | Download | August 2022 | Mid 2022 |
| 6. | Ministry for Culture and Heritage (MCH) | Creating an impactful, sustainable, vibrant and resilient cultural sector ecosystem that enables delivery and outcomes with a key focus in areas such as te ao Māori and digital technologies | Single | 2021–2040 | Consultation to develop a Long-Term Insights Briefing: The components of an impactful and sustainable cultural sector into the future | 27 August–26 November 2021 (91 days) | Long-Term Insights Briefing: Draft for consultation | November 2022–27 November 2022 | Download | Not found | December 2022 |
| 7. | Ministry for Pacific Peoples (MPP) | Improving Pacific data equity to aid in the fair representation of Pacific peoples within the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data in turn, enhancing Pacific wellbeing | Single | Suggests at least 20 years (2022–2042+) | Consultation to develop a Long-term Insights Briefing (LTIB): Improving Pacific data equity: Opportunities to enhance the future of Pacific wellbeing | 29 November 2021–28 January 2022 (60 days) | Long-Term Insights Briefing 2022: Improving Pacific Data Equity: Opportunities to enhance the future of Pacific wellbeing | Closed 11 December 2022 | See OIA 2024/03 | - | Not found |
| 8. | Ministry for Primary Industries | Future-proofing the productivity of New Zealand's food sector by exploring how emerging demographic and global trends are influencing future global consumer preferences out to 2050 and what this might mean for New Zealand including what we might need to do to capture opportunities | Single | 2050 | The Future of New Zealand’s Food and Fibre Sector: Exploring new demand opportunities for the sector in the year 2050 | 22 August–16 Sept 2022 (25 days) | The Future of Aotearoa New Zealand’s Food Sector: Exploring Demand Opportunities in the Year 2050 | 1 February 2023–24 February 2023 (23 days) | Download | April 2023 | Not found |
| 9. | Ministry for the Environment | Ensuring a resilient and sustainable future for the land that we depend on and in turn, the wellbeing of all New Zealanders (current and future generations) | Single | 2050 | People and place: Ensuring the wellbeing of every generation: Consultation on the topic for the Ministry for the Environment’s Long-term Insights Briefing 2022 | 5–20 May 2022 (15 days) | Where to from here? How we ensure the future wellbeing of land and people: Consultation on the Ministry for the Environment’s draft Long-term Insights Briefing 2022 | 5 October–18 October 2022 (13 days) | Download | 21 February 2023 | Late 2022 |
| 10. | Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | How will global drivers and megatrends, particularly purpose-led business and blockchain technology, shape the future of business, productivity and wellbeing in New Zealand and how do we understand and navigate this change? | Single | Suggests at least 10 years (2021– 2031+) | The future of business for Aotearoa New Zealand: Opportunities and implications for productivity and wellbeing | 20 July 2021–20 August 2021 (31 days) | The future of business for Aotearoa New Zealand: An exploration of two trends influencing productivity and wellbeing – purpose-led business and blockchain technology | 11 May–24 June 2022 (44 days) | Download | November 2022 | Mid 2022 |
| 11. | Ministry of Education (MoE), Ministry for Women (MfW), Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Ministry of Social Development (MSD) | Identifying opportunities to improve education and employment system responses to support better employment outcomes for all young people, particularly those at risk of low employment, in the medium- and long-term | Joint | Not specified | Consultation to develop a Long-Term Insights Briefing: Youth at risk of limited employment | 1 July 2021–15 August 2021 (45 days) | Preparing All Young People for Satisfying and Rewarding Working Lives: Draft Briefing for public consultation from September to October 2022 | 12 September 2022–9 October 2022 (27 days) | Download | January 2023 | Mid 2022 |
| 12. | Ministry of Health (MOH) | Unlocking the potential of precision health within New Zealand to support the vision for pae ora and aid in anticipating and addressing long-term opportunities and risks to health from global forces and trends | Single | Suggests at least 10 years (2022– 2032+) | Precision health: Exploring opportunities and challenges to predict, prevent, diagnose, and treat disease more precisely in Aotearoa New Zealand | November 2022–27 January 2023 | Precision Health: Exploring opportunities and challenges to predict, prevent, diagnose, and treat disease more precisely in Aotearoa New Zealand | 19 May 2023–19 Jun 2023 (31 days) | Download | August 2023 | Mid 2023 |
| 13. | Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) | Identifying the implications of our ageing population for our housing and urban futures particularly the likely impacts on the housing and urban systems of New Zealand and how these systems can adapt | Single | Suggests at least 10 years (2022– 2032+) | No public consultation document on subject matter options could be found online | 27 October–12 November 2021 (16 days) | The long-term implications of our ageing population for our housing and urban futures | 20 October 2022–10 November 2022 (21 days) | Download | March 2023 | Early 2023 |
| 14. | Ministry of Justice (MoJ), Crown Law Office (CLO), Department of Corrections (DoC), Oranga Tamariki (OT) and Serious Fraud Office (SFO), | Key insights and trends from 60 years worth of data on imprisonment and prison populations, and how they can potentially shape future pathways within the criminal justice system and wider society to meet future needs | Joint | Suggests at least 20 years (2022–2042+) | New Zealand Justice Sector Long-term Insights Briefing: Long-term insights about imprisonment and what these tell us about future risks and opportunities | 2 November 2021–30 November 2021 (28 days) | Justic sector public consultation: Imprisonment in Aotearoa | 12 September 2022–7 October 2022 (25 days) | Download | December 2022 | November 2022 |
| 15. | Te Puni Kōkiri (TPK) | Identifying what it will take to enable whānau and Māori to thrive on the terms that they identify and set for themselves through the lens of a holistic view of wellbeing where whānau are actively contributing towards achieving their social and economic aspirations | Single | 2040 | No public consultation document on subject matter options could be found online – only an evidence brief has been published See OIA 2024/04 | - | No public consultation document on the draft LTIB could be found online See OIA 2024/04 | - | Download | July 2023 | Late 2022 |
| 16. | Ministry of Transport (MoT) | The potential impact of autonomous vehicles on New Zealand’s transport system and the wellbeing of New Zealanders | Single | Suggests at least 10 years (2021– 2031+) | Te Manatū Waka – Ministry of Transport Long-Term Insights Briefing: The impact of autonomous vehicles operating on New Zealand roads | 27 August 2021–17 September 2021 (21 days) | The impact of automated vehicles operating on Aotearoa New Zealand roads: Long-term Insights Briefing | 6–27 May 2022 (21 days) | Download | August 2022 | Mid 2022 |
| 17. | Public Service Commission (PSC) | Identifying opportunities to improve the Government's capability for public engagement in order to enable greater active citizenship | Single | 2040 | He pēhea nei te takatū o Te Ratonga Tūmatanui o Aotearoa mō te tau 2040? – How is New Zealand’s Public Service prepared for 2040? | 20 August 2021–20 September 2021 (31 days) | Public Participation in Government in the Future: Te Kawa Mataaho – Public Service Commission’s Long-Term Insights Briefing | Closed 3 June 2022 | Download | Not found | Not found |
| 18. | Statistics New Zealand (StatsNZ) | Improving the way New Zealand uses data by creating better value of data, forming an ethical and secure system, and utilising government mechanisms, in order to capture the social and economic opportunities that data has the potential to produce | Single | Not specified | Stats NZ’s Long-term Insights Briefing: Data as a driver of national competitive advantage – fostering improved wellbeing and economic growth | 24 November–28 January (65 days) | Stats NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa Long-term Insights Briefing: Aotearoa New Zealand: Empowered by data – Long term insights about the role of data in wellbeing and economic advantage | 11 November 2022–10 February 2023 (91 days) | Download | April 2023 | Not found |
| 19. | The Treasury | Identifying the Government’s long-term fiscal position and exploring policy options available to address long-term fiscal challenges, risks and opportunities | Single | At least 40 years (2061+) | Looking to the Future: New Zealand’s long-term fiscal challenges: Consultation on the scope of the Treasury’s combined Statement on the long-term fiscal position and Long-term insights briefing | 26 February–26 March 2021 (28 days) | He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021: Consultation on the draft content of the Treasury’s combined Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position and Long-term Insights Briefing | 2 July 2021–30 July 2022 (28 days) | Download | 29 September 2021 | September 2021 |
Relevant Resources
- Strategic Foresight Primer (Nov 2017), United Kingdom, see: https://cor.europa.eu/Documents/Migrated/Events/EPSC_strategic_foresight_primer.pdf
- Unboxing the Future: Finding the futures hidden in plain sight (Aug 2020), United Kingdom, see: https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/unboxing-future
- Emerging Stronger Together, Singapore, see: https://emergingstronger.sg
- National Blue Ocean Strategy (NBOS) (2009), Malaysia, see: http://uctc.uthm.edu.my/index.php/national-blue-ocean-strategy-nbos
- School of International Futures: Features of effective systemic foresight in governments around the world (Apr 2021), United Kingdom, see: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/985253/effective-systemic-foresight-governments-case-studies.pdf [New Zealand is included as a case study, see pages 17-20]
- Futures Forward Webinar (2021), Singapore, see: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=futures+forward+webinar