Foresightnz
Foresight tools
Part of the McGuinness Institute’s ForesightNZ project
We are currently developing a set of foresight tools cards, which showcase a number of well-known foresight tools.
The aim of this project is to share a number of common foresight tools in an easily accessible manner. Foresight practitioners look for ways to reduce uncertainty and by doing so, provide more clarity over what the future may hold. Just like a gold digger who continues to try to find a vein of gold, practitioners continue to work away at a problem or issue, using a wide range of mechanisms to seek out data, information or knowledge or to make sense of any obvious nuances and interconnections. Foresight practitioners often combine or undertake a sequential series of tools in the form of exercises to explore a particular issue or problem. See for example, a workshop exercise, that uses three of the tools mentioned below.
Foresight tools have been designed by academics and practitioners to answer one of three questions:
- Scanning: How can I gain access to timely, useful and relevant data, information and/or knowledge about the future?
- Mapping: How can I use that data, information and/or knowledge to test assumptions, identify gaps and explain relationships?
- Scenario development: How can I apply scanning and mapping to help identify triggers, explore possible impacts, manage risks, forward engage with tricky issues, write playbooks/plans to manage possible challenges and opportunities, and most importantly, tell stories about a diverse range of possible futures?
The Institute hopes this initiative contributes to a deeper discussion about the future, not just about the insights gained from using a particular tool or a range of tools, but ideally a critical assessment of the foresight tools themselves.
The criteria that shaped the selection of these tools are as follows:
- simple to understand and use in a workshop situation
- flexible to apply to a range of problems or issues
- have a visual element that conveys the concept
- frequently applied by practitioners around the world
Invitation to comment by 31 March 2025
Our aim is to complete this work in April 2025. The Institute would welcome feedback on the foresight tools cards ideally before 31 March 2025. Please email all suggestions to enquiries@mcguinnessinstitute.org
As we progress this work, we will provide additional PDFs.
4 December 2024 (latest version)
Download full set of Foresight Tools cards (PDF, 312 KB)
Expression of interest in Foresight tools 2
Foresight tools resources
Name | Author | Relevant tool | Tool used for | Topics |
---|---|---|---|---|
Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey (2021) | McGuinness Institute | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | LTIBs | |
Strategic Risk and Crisis Management: A handbook for modelling and managing complex risks | David Rubens | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
Building Strategic Foresight and Anticipatory Capacity and Knowledge in Government | OECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda | Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
40 Years of Shell Scenarios | Royal Dutch Shell | Scenarios by the Numbers | Scenario | |
Causal Layered Analysis A Four-Level Approach to Alternative Futures | Sohail Inayatullah | Futures Triangle | Mapping | |
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Nicholas Taleb | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Black Swan |
StrategyNZ: Understanding paradox through strategic foresight | Peter Bishop | STEEP+C | Mapping | |
The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore | Michele Wucker | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Gray Rhino |
Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming | Sohail Inayatullah | Futures Triangle | Mapping | |
New Zealand's National Risks | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) | Scanning | ||
Our first Long-Term Insights Briefings | Andrew Jackson | LTIBs | ||
The Futures Wheel | Jerome C. Glenn | Futures Wheel | Mapping | |
Benefits of Scenario Planning Applied to Energy Development | Barry Benedict | |||
There are known unknowns [see PDF here] | Donald Rumsfeld | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | |
The Inquisitive Man [see PDF here] | Ivan Krylov | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Black Elephant |
Icons of Futures Thinking | Insight & Foresight | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method | Sohail Inayatullah | Causal Layered Analysis | Mapping | |
Three Horizons | International Futures Forum | Three Horizons | Mapping |