Arne Larsen inside the Foreign Office in London (2024).
Defence Futures was previously the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC). Wendy met with their team twice in 2023, and was impressed with how they build discipline into the foresight process, and seek collaboration from a wide range of experts and nation-states. The team itself is also extremely diverse, with not only British military officers and civil servants, but also officers and civilians from Australia, Brazil, Finland, Germany and Sweden.
Arne was placed with the Strategic Foresight Team, who focus on the Defence Futures long-term strategic context. They achieve this by collaborating with a global network, both in the stages of producing work as well as sharing outcomes. One significant piece of the Strategic Foresight Team’s work that Arne was exposed to is the Global Strategic Trends programme.
Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055
In September 2024, the Strategic Foresight Team published the very comprehensive 7th edition of its flagship Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055. It aims to provide the strategic context for decision-makers in the MOD as well as the wider government.
As part of the Global Strategic Trends process, the Strategic Foresight Team engaged with over 10,000 foresight practitioners around the world, gaining insights and feedback from multiple perspectives. The outputs of this process include:
- Over 60 supporting research papers
- Six global drivers of change:
- global power competition
- demographic pressures
- climate change and the environment
- technological advances and connectivity
- economic transformation and energy transition, and
- inequality and pressure on government
- Five core contradictions:
- increasing interconnectivity and fragmentation
- cooperation and confrontation
- innovation and stagnation
- growing authoritarianism and demand for transparency, and
- weakening abilities and strengthening roles of states.
Arne says a key learning from the programme was that the future cannot be predicted. To illustrate this, the Strategic Foresight Team used five fictitious – but plausible – pathway scenarios. Each scenario is shaped by different responses to key shocks to the international system, and each of these scenarios could result in the emergence of a different world order. These five pathway scenarios can be seen in the infographic below.
The next stage of the Global Strategic Trends process, and the stage that the Strategic Foresight Team is in now, involves sharing their output through workshops with organisations and practitioners from many backgrounds and places throughout the world.
Arne was fortunate to take part in one of these workshops in the House of Commons in London. The workshop briefly discussed the Global Strategic Trends programme, with a focus on the five pathway scenarios, followed by a back-casting exercise to illustrate how these pathways can be used. Back-casting is a strategic planning tool that involves envisaging a preferred future, then working backwards to determine how to get there.
The Strategic Foresight Team has now begun scoping various strategic implications projects (SIPs). These projects build upon the foundation set by the Global Strategic Trends programme, and seek to address some more complex areas identified in the process of writing the Global Strategic Trends publication. Arne was given the opportunity to work on scoping one of these SIPs – helping to build the knowledge base and provide some early implications that will continue to be refined in the future.
Sun setting outside the Defence Futures building (Arne Larsen, 2025).
An exceptional experience
Arne says of his placement, ‘It’s difficult to summarise the many lessons I have learned from this experience, but my top five observations that are likely to shape my work going forward are:
- To seek out diverse views.
- To divide complex processes into a number of specific and measurable stages.
- To regularly check that the work programme is likely to meet the desired purpose/outcome.
- To frequently stress-test your thinking with others.
- To peel back layers of thought; you might think the job is done when in reality it may have just begun.’
He continues, ‘I would like to thank Wendy McGuinness and the team at the McGuinness’s Institute for organising my placement with the team at Defence Futures. It has been an exceptional experience.’
‘I would like to thank those in the Strategic Foresight Team that I have been working with over the past three months. You are all such incredible people who welcomed me enthusiastically, who made me feel like a valued member of the team, and who have all been incredibly inspiring to me.’
‘This experience has been one that I will always look back on as life-changing. Thank you for your patience and sharing your insights.’
The Institute is very grateful to the team at Defence Futures and looks forward to continuing to develop a relationship.
We also hope this blog is a catalyst for the New Zealand government to collaborate more with Defence Futures, especially given their open and collaborative style, their skill base, and their networks.